Refugees

At the time of writing some 10 million people in Ukraine have left their homes. Many of them are, for the moment at least, still in Ukraine and hence do not yet fit the UNHCR‘s definition of refugees. Then add to these to 82,400,000 forcibly displaced people at the end of 2020 of which, according to the UN, 26.4 million are refugees and 48 million were internally displaced, and you have some 1.1% of the global population who have at present been forced from their homes. That may not seem much in the greater scheme of things, but I am sure those away from their homes and loved ones would disagree.

One would imagine that we in the developed world are comfortable enough to alleviate such suffering by welcoming refugees, be it even only temporarily, but figures by Amnesty International show that 85% of refugees are being hosted in developing countries. Germany with 1.1 million refugees is the only country in the list of the top 10 host nations. Many wealthier states including the EU and the U.K. continue to prioritise policies that will deter people from seeking asylum, and finding ways to stop them coming altogether. At the same time, they are putting the onus on nearby countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Pakistan or Bangladesh to protect people fleeing for their lives.

In 2015 and 2016 Germany received over 1 million first time asylum applications mainly from people fleeing war and terrorism in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Five years later, over half of these refugees have found a job, and public support for immigration remains high. On arrival, only about one percent declared having good or very good German language skills. By 2018, that figure had increased to 44 percent. Such contributions are badly needed within an aging German labor market, which is facing skill shortages and needs trained migrant labor.

This holds a lesson for many more if not all developed countries: as demographics change for the worse with ever less people paying social contributions for ever more pensioners, which, just by the way, grow ever older (but, with increasing age, may also need ever more medical and social care), one needs to ask where the funds which will pay our children and grandchildren‘s pensions will be coming from. And who will produce the goods and deliver the services retirees strive for?

In the U.K. in 1901, the male life expectancy was 45 years, by 2012, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this had almost doubled to 79 years and by 2050, the proportion of the British population aged 65 and over is projected to reach nearly 25%. At the same time the number of working age people to every pensioner, or the “old age support ratio”, is forecast to fall to 2.9 by 2050, from 3.3 in the mid-1970s to 2006. This could mean rising poverty and less social care for future pensioners, but also lower standards of living for everyone as an ageing population limits economic growth.

To a certain degree we all have an obligation to look after those who are less privileged – if only because we are better off. And that doesn’t only mean European (i.e. Ukrainian) refugees who basically share our beliefs and values, but also people from other cultures who have been forced from their homes, such as Afghans or Palestinians. Let’s not forget that many of them are well educated and motivated. And it might just be them, who will start the businesses, which will employ our kids and grandchildren and whose contributions will pay our offsprings’ pensions.