Autocracy on the advance

What have Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Venezuela in common? They all repress democratic expression by their populations, be it in general or as part of recent or upcoming elections. In Russia Vladimir Putin’s reelection at 87% of the population’s vote following the death of Alexei Navalny in an arctic penal colony in February is more than circumspect. Even more so in light of the passive protests during the election weekend in several Russian cities. In India Arvind Kejrival, the Chief Minister of Delhi state and leader of one of India’s opposition parties was recently arrested on corruption charges and just ahead of the country’s general election. The same in Pakistan: Imran Khan, the former cricketer und popular politician has been condemned to a lengthy jail sentence on trumped up charges despite his party having won the recent election, while the country, as always under the army’s supervision, is governed by the Sharif clan. In Venezuela Nicolas Maduro has jailed and/or disqualified most of the opposition politicians which could constitute a threat to his upcoming reelection in the summer. And in China, finally, President Xi Jinping rules the country and the communist party with an iron fist, having recently ‘demoted’ Premier Li Qiang to a mostly domestic and ceremonial role.

In Europe too right wing tendencies are on the rise, although it would be a stretch to talk of autocracies or dictatorships: In Germany the Alternative for Germany (AfD) polls nationwide at almost 18%, reaching 30% in some of the states of former East Germany. In Holland Geert Wilders’ far-right party won a general election in Holland in November. Italy’s prime minister Georgia Meloni’s policies have so far been reasonably moderate, but that can’t hide the fact that she represents the right wing Brothers of Italy party. Then let’s not forget Viktor Orban, Hungary’s far right premier since 2010. And while it is not in the immediate future: In France the right wing Marine Le Pen, at least as things look at the moment, stands a chance of winning the presidential election in 2027.

How much of the world’s population lives in democracies varies depending on the method of calculation, but it is an undeniable fact that democracy is declining. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit in 2023 only 8% of the global population lived in a ‚full democracy‘ such as Europe, Australia or Canada.

The United States, on the other hand, are classified as a ‚flawed democracy‘ ‚ by the EIU, where elections are fair and free and basic civil liberties are honoured, but which may have issues (e.g. media freedom infringement and minor suppression of political opposition and critics). According to the EIU there are 50 countries and just short of 38% of the population in this group.

Autocracies, still according to this ranking, in 2023 contained 59 nations representing 39% of the world’s population. They often thrive in unstable economic conditions where there’s a lack of transparency and accountability, allowing leaders to consolidate power and control resources. They can exploit economic crises to further consolidate power through propaganda, suppression of dissent, and manipulating resources for their benefit. In this respect the economic backdrop namely since the pandemic has provided fertile ground to the dictators of this world. Take for example Belarus, where President Lukashenko used the pandemic as a pretext to crack down on dissent, and China, where the government intensified its repression of dissent in regions like Xinjiang and Hong Kong under the guise of pandemic control measures.

Additionally, some governments have used emergency powers granted during the pandemic to restrict freedoms beyond what’s necessary for public health, as happened in the Philippines, where President Rodrigo Duterte expanded police powers and implemented strict lockdown measures, leading to reports of human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings under the guise of enforcing pandemic restrictions. Or as in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced criticism for using emergency powers to implement surveillance measures and restrict protests, leading to accusations of undermining democratic norms.

Then again it’s not all bad news: An albeit small number of countries have made progress towards more democratic forms of governance in recent years: Following months of protests in Sudan that led to the ousting of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan formed a transitional government that included civilian and military leaders. Despite facing economic and public health challenges during the pandemic, Sudan continued its transition process, including steps towards democratic reforms. In 2021, Armenia experienced a peaceful transition of power following protests against former Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who eventually resigned. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, Armenia continued its democratic processes and held parliamentary elections, further solidifying its democratic institutions. With his party having won the 2021 parliamentary elections, Pashinyan is still prime minister.

Economic development, social cohesion across diverse cultural and religious groups as well as education and awareness about human rights but also democratic values and civic responsibilities are key ingredients to reverse the current trend. And with the economic picture hopefully so what brightening over the coming months, there is hope that egalitarian values will be on the rise again – and maybe even restored in some countries which have lost their way.