Divided We Stand: Navigating Political Polarisation

As elections in Britain and the United States are upon us (and all of a sudden also in France), it is time to look at the political landscape and how it has evolved. Once upon a time in the United Kingdom there used to be the Conservatives and the Labour Party – and to a much less prominent extent the Liberal Democrats. Nowadays it’s more complicated: the Tories and Labour still gather most of the votes, but as an alternative the Liberal Democrats have been joined by the Green Party and Reform UK (which in fact is simply a renamed U.K. Independence Party). In the USA, on the other hand, things are simple: just two parties to choose from, the Democrats and the Republicans.

But voters have changed too and many now cast their ballot less on their basic political affiliation, but along the stances parties take on the particular issues closest to their hearts. A typical example is for example the British elections in 2019, when many traditional Labour leaning constituencies in the north of England cast their ballots for the Conservatives, and many of these northern wards had voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum. Labour’s ambiguous stance on Brexit, advocating for a second referendum, was seen as out of touch with these voters’ preferences. The Conservative Party’s clear promise to “Get Brexit Done” resonated more strongly with them. Moreover the Tories promised significant investment in northern infrastructure and a commitment to leveling up economically disadvantaged areas, appealing to voters frustrated with years of perceived neglect.

Spain too used to have a two-party system with usually either the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party or the People‘s Party to choose from. Then smaller parties such as Unidas Podemos, Vox and Cidudanos entered the fray and as a result both in the general elections of December 2015 and April 2019 no party managed to secure a majority and while coalition talks failed in 2016, leaving Spain without a functioning government for 10 months, following a second election in November 2019. A coalition government was finally formed in January 2020, resulting in a period of about 8 months without a stable government.

Then there is the strong (and still growing) support for the extreme right such as Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany and the Rassemblement National in France. Both parties share a nationalist and populist outlook, emphasising immigration control, national sovereignty, and conservative social policies, while also being critical of the European Union and globalization. I am convinced that many of the people that vote for them aren’t hardcore fascists, but ordinary folk who don’t feel their worries and concerns are adequately represented by the traditional political parties.

The consequences of these shifting trends and rise in polarisation are obvious: Majorities in elections are harder to achieve, which means often fractious coalitions are more likely, potentially leaving national governments in limbo as far as crucial decisions are concerned. In Germany during the grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD from 2013 to 2017, ambitious plans to overhaul digital infrastructure and educational reforms were significantly watered down or stalled due to disagreements on funding and priorities between the coalition partners. And who pays the ultimate price? Of course the general public and hence the voters.

In the U.K. the recent rise in support for the Reform party will certainly cost the Conservatives additional seats, while Reform quite likely will send no MP to Westminster. Although the outcome of the general election based on current polling on 4 July is pretty obvious (a likely landslide win for Labour), polarisation and tactical voting are threatening the ability for administrations to effectively govern during the next legislature. And as a result it may ultimately negatively affect the longer term political outlook of the weaker coalition partners. The Liberal Democrats in the UK experienced a significant decline in votes following their coalition with the Conservative Party from 2010 to 2015: In the 2010 general election, before entering the coalition, the Liberal Democrats received 23% of the total vote share, in 2015, after five years in coalition, their vote count dropped to just 7.9%.

What polarisation can do is also shown by the elections to the European Parliament this weekend: a hefty shift to the right got Marine Le Pen and her Rassemblement National in pole position for the next elections in France, enough so that President Macron dissolved parliament and called a general election for the end of June with a second round early July. A brave and potentially foolish move which could leave him head of state with a right-wing prime minister. Then again, voters not only in France often take the European elections less seriously and hence in these are more inclined to vote for extreme outfits they wouldn’t necessarily want to run their own country. Nevertheless, the shift to the right which started years ago seems to continue.

So voters take note: in the USA votes cast for Robert F. Kennedy as an independent candidate may tip the balance from Donald Trump to Joe Biden winning the race – or vice versa. And in Britain protest votes for any party other than Labour or the Tories while not this time round in future might prevent one or the other political faction from forming a majority government. Just don’t complain then when nothing gets done until the next election. Mind you, since campaigning is mostly about pretending to have a solution for all of the country’s problems when no party ever does, it probably doesn’t matter anyway.